Operation characteristics of power industry in the

2022-08-02
  • Detail

Research and judgment on the operation characteristics of the power industry in the first half of 2019 and the trend in the second half of 2019

: in the second half of the year, the economy continued to maintain a stable operation, the counter cyclical adjustment effect of the national macro policy gradually appeared, the stabilization and recovery trend of industrial production increased, and the growth rate will pick up. It is estimated that the growth rate of the whole society's electricity consumption in 2019 will be about 5%, which is lower than the average growth rate of the whole society's electricity consumption in the first three years of the "13th five year plan" (6.7%), but still higher than the growth rate in the second two years after the "12th Five Year Plan"

(source: China power enterprise management id:zgdlqygl Author: wupeng, zhangchuncheng, etc.)

operation characteristics of the power industry in the first half of the year

in the first half of the year, the power consumption of the whole society increased steadily, and the growth rate decreased significantly. Among them, the decline in the growth rate of power consumption in the secondary industry is the main reason for the decline in the growth rate of power consumption in the whole society, while the power consumption in the tertiary industry and residents' lives has maintained a rapid growth. The growth rate of power consumption in 25 provinces slowed down, and the growth rate of power consumption in 3 provinces was negative. The growth rate was slightly lower than that of electricity consumption. Non fossil energy power generation maintained a rapid growth, and the installed capacity of new power generation decreased. In the first half of the year, the national power supply and demand remained balanced

in the first half of the year, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 3.4 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, and the growth rate dropped by 4.4 percentage points year-on-year. Among them, the electricity consumption in the first and second quarters increased by 5.5% and 4.5% respectively year-on-year, reflecting the steady start of China's economy in the first quarter and the increase of downward pressure on the economy in the second quarter

the growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry decreased significantly, and the contribution rate of electricity consumption growth in the tertiary industry and residents increased significantly. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry was 3.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5 percentage points. The decline in the growth rate of the secondary industry was the main reason for the decline in the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society; The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and residents increased by 9.4% and 9.6% respectively year-on-year, 6.3 and 6.5 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. In the first half of the year, the contribution rate of the secondary industry to the growth of electricity consumption was 42.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9 percentage points. The contribution rates of the tertiary industry and residents' lives to the growth of electricity consumption were 29.5% and 27.0% respectively, a year-on-year increase of 6.1% and 7.9 percentage points respectively. The continuous optimization of power consumption structure reflects the continuous deepening of industrial structure adjustment and the continuous release of people's electricity demand. The power consumption of high energy consuming industries grew steadily, with a growth rate of 3.4%, down 1.7 percentage points year-on-year

the growth rate of electricity consumption in most provinces has slowed down, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in some provinces has been negative. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of power consumption in 25 of the 31 provinces slowed down. Only Tibet (16.6%), Hainan (9.9%), Xinjiang (9.2%), Hebei (7.0%) and Shandong (3.8%) saw an increase in power consumption growth, with year-on-year increases of 5.8, 1.8, 2.4, 2.1 and 0.9 percentage points respectively. Among them, the electricity consumption in Shanghai, Gansu and Qinghai decreased by 0.1%, 0.7% and 2.8% respectively

the growth rate of power generation is slightly lower than that of power consumption, and the power generation of non fossil energy is growing rapidly. In the first half of the year, the national power generation increased by 3.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0 percentage points, 1.7 percentage points lower than the growth rate of power consumption. Among them, the growth rate of thermal power was only 0.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8 percentage points; Non fossil energy power generation increased by 12.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points. Hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and solar power generation increased by 11.8%, 23.1%%11.5 and 29.1% respectively

the scale of new installed capacity has been greatly reduced, and the new installed capacity is still dominated by non fossil energy. In the first half of the year, the country's new installed power generation capacity was 40.74 million KW, a year-on-year decrease of 11.94 million KW, mainly due to the decrease of 14.17 million kW in the new installed solar power generation capacity, of which 58.4% of the new installed power generation capacity was non fossil energy power generation capacity, a decrease compared with last year, but still the main part of the new installed power generation capacity

analysis of power demand growth trend in the second half of the year

analysis of the impact of economic growth

. In September, 2018, the U.S. government announced the second round of tariff increase measures, involving the vast majority of China's export industries to the United States, with a value of $200billion. From September 24, the tariff rate was increased to 10%. On May 10, 2019, the United States raised the tariff rate of US $200billion on Chinese goods from 10% to 25%. Under the influence of the United States' trade protection measures against China, China's exports to the United States have declined significantly, and the electricity consumption growth of export enterprises involved in the United States has slowed down relatively. In the first half of the year, China's exports to the United States decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate decreased by 8.2 percentage points year-on-year. From the perspective of China's business regions, the Sino US economic and trade frictions intensified in the second quarter, especially in May, and the net capacity of industrial expansion fell sharply. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of electricity sales of us related export enterprises decreased by 10.3 percentage points year-on-year, 4.1 percentage points lower than that of the whole industry, directly affecting about 5.5 billion kwh of electricity sales

in the long run, China US industrial relations have moved from complementarity to competition. The root cause of trade friction is not the apparent reduction of deficit and trade balance, but the strategic containment of emerging powers by hegemonic countries. In the second half of the year, Sino US trade frictions will further escalate. On August 15, the U.S. government announced that about $300billion of goods would be subject to 10% tariff, which would be implemented in two batches from September 1 and December 15, 2019. After China implemented countermeasures, the United States threatened to raise the tax rate of $300billion to 25%. With the escalation of Sino US economic and trade frictions, the negative impact on China's power consumption has further deepened. In the next step, if the United States increases tariffs on $300billion of goods to 25%, it will reduce China's GDP growth by about 0.7 percentage points in 2019 and affect the growth of power consumption by about 1.4 percentage points

on the whole, in the second half of the year, affected by the Sino US trade friction, China's economic development is facing certain pressure and uncertainty, and the driving force of economic growth will mainly come from domestic demand. On July 30, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China proposed to maintain policy focus, promote high-quality development, and not use real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy. And put forward a series of measures, including: deeply tap the potential of domestic demand and effectively start the rural market; We will stabilize investment in the manufacturing sector, and implement projects to address weaknesses, such as the renovation of old urban communities and urban parking lots; Take concrete measures to support the development of private enterprises. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the implementation of a series of policies such as "making up for weaknesses" and "new infrastructure" will drive the recovery of investment growth; Tax cuts, fee reductions and other policies have been increased. Consumption growth is expected to stabilize. The national economy is expected to operate within a reasonable range and remain stable on the whole

climate and temperature impact analysis

in the month of 2019, affected by heavy rainfall and typhoon, the national average temperature was lower than that of the same period last year, and the power consumption of air conditioning load increased negatively, reducing the growth rate of power consumption in the whole society. In July, the national average temperature was 22.1 ℃, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 ℃; The average number of high temperature days was 5.7 days, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4 days. According to the calculation of the power supply and Demand Research Laboratory of China National Household Electrical Appliance Co., Ltd., the national cooling power decreased by 9.5% year-on-year in July, and the decline was expanded year-on-year, accounting for a decrease in the proportion of power consumption in the whole society; The temperature factor reduced the power consumption of the whole society by 1.6 percentage points. In terms of regions, the temperature in southwest, central and East China was lower in July due to continuous rainfall, and the number of high temperature days in the whole month was less than that in the whole year; In the same period last year, most of the above-mentioned areas experienced large-scale continuous high-temperature weather with strong intensity, wide range and long duration. Due to the failure to fully release the cooling load, the growth rate of power consumption in southwest, central and East China is sluggish. Among them, the cooling power consumption in Chongqing, Sichuan, Jiangxi and Hunan decreased by more than 30%, and the proportion of cooling power consumption in Chongqing, Sichuan, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui decreased by more than 5 percentage points

it is estimated that in the winter of 2019, the preliminary climate forecast temperature is equivalent to that of the whole year. It is expected that the heating power will increase steadily, increasing the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society

impact analysis of power substitution

the central economic work conference in 2019 proposed that we should fight a tough battle against pollution, stick to our positions, consolidate achievements, and focus on winning the blue sky defense war. The 2019 government work report proposed that we should continue to promote pollution control, consolidate and expand the achievements of the blue sky defense war, continue to tackle the difficulties of air pollution control in Beijing Tianjin Hebei and its surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta and the Fen Wei plain, and strengthen the control of three major pollution sources: industry, coal and motor vehicles. We will do a good job in cleaning and heating the northern region to ensure that the people are warm for the winter. The implementation of electric energy substitution is an important measure to fight the tough battle of pollution prevention and control. It is of great significance to promote the revolution of energy consumption, promote the clean development of energy, and promote pollution prevention and control. In recent years, the national and local governments have successively issued a series of policies, such as the guiding opinions on promoting electric energy substitution and the northern region's winter clean heating plan (year), to actively promote the effective implementation of electric energy substitution. The plan has comprehensively deployed the electric heating objectives, promotion strategies and safeguard measures, and proposed to drive the new power consumption of 110billion kwh by 2021. In june2019, the National Energy Administration issued the notice on solving relevant problems in the process of promoting clean heating such as "coal to gas" and "coal to electricity", which pointed out that: a perfect long-term support mechanism will be established based on the principle of the lowest operating cost, and natural gas and electric heating will be promoted in areas with conditions in accordance with the principle of "supply for change"

electric power enterprises have actively responded to the national call, done a lot of work in optimizing the working mechanism, striving for and issuing support policies, and made every effort to promote the substitution of electric energy. They have successively formulated the implementation plan for clean electric heating in winter in northern China (year) and the three-year plan for "coal to electricity" in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas and Fen Wei plain (year). The plan defines the goal and task of "replacing coal with electricity" and formulates the construction scale and plan of supporting electricity in detail. It proposes that from 2018 to 2020, a total of 5.285 million households, 24000 villages and 7000 enterprises and institutions in the company's business areas in key regions will implement electric heating transformation, with an additional heating area of 460million square meters. Among them, 4.547 million households, 19000 villages and 6000 enterprises and institutions in the "2+26" cities have implemented electric heating transformation, with an additional heating area of 410million square meters; In Fen Wei plain cities, 738000 households, 5000 villages and 0500 enterprises and institutions have implemented electric heating transformation, with an additional heating area of 50million square meters. By 2020, the clean and alternative power of "coal to electricity" in key areas will reach 45.6 billion kwh, which can reduce the consumption of bulk coal by 25.3 million tons, carbon dioxide by 45.1 million tons, and sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and dust pollutants by 14.3 million tons. P solution: regularly protect the zigzag experimental machine for about 400000 tons. In january2019, in order to thoroughly implement the opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on implementing the Rural Revitalization Strategy and the national strategic plan for Rural Revitalization (2018-2022), vigorously promote rural electrification and promote the upgrading of rural energy production and consumption, China National Household Appliances Co., Ltd. issued the opinions on serving the Rural Revitalization Strategy and vigorously promoting rural electrification. The opinions put forward that the electrification of rural industry should be promoted from the aspects of promoting the construction of rural all electric scenic spots, the electrification transformation of homestays, the application of electric energy in characteristic industries, and the electrification of rural life should be promoted from the aspects of promoting rural electric heating, green travel and household electrification. By 2022, in terms of agricultural product planting, processing, rural tourism, etc

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI